UFC 164: Rock Solid Picks & Predictions (who you got?)

Posted: August 30, 2013 in Commentary/Opinion, Picks and Predictions
Tags: ,

showtimekickUFC 164 might be the rare event where an injury to the main event actually made the PPV more appealing. Apologies to TJ Grant, but let’s face it, a Henderson/Pettis rematch for the title is pretty hard to beat. We’ll see replays of that Showtime Kick about 2,000 times in the next 24 hours. About the same number of times Dana White will say FUCK, and then blame it on Steve Mazzagatti. What do you think of my picks?

Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis
This title fight has a lot of intriguing aspects. Obviously it’s for a belt; and a rematch. I’ll probably get in trouble for saying this, but here goes. Henderson is bordering on being the new GSP, and not in a good way. He’s becoming the guy who never loses, yet never amazes. That’s a sticky predicament. On the other hand, Pettis is becoming the guy who people like me use as an example for what’s awesome about MMA. This guy is dynamic, fun to watch, a finisher AND he’s a winner. I think Pettis is at the very top of his game right now and I honestly think Henderson—who I’m leery to bet against—will come up short. It makes sense. BJ Penn lost twice to Frankie Edgar; Edgar lost twice to Henderson; and now Henderson will lose a second fight to Pettis. Write that down. MY PICK—Pettis via TKO4

Frank Mir vs. Josh Barnett
Two former UFC champions who also happen to be two of the best grapplers in the sport’s history…what’s not to like? Although it’s about 5 years later than I would have hoped, this matchup makes my jean shorts get a little tighter. Let me tell you about a theory I have. Despite no real experience in medicine, I believe Mir’s “connection” is loose. That’s how I describe a guy who’s taken enough damage to where his lights turn off easier and easier. Like a loose electrical switch. It happened to Liddell, Wanderlei, Jardine, etc. I think Brendan Schaub has a loose connection. If Mir submits Barnett in the 1st round—which is very possible—he will avoid what I think is an inevitable dark ending at the hands of the “Babyfaced War Master Assassin Machine,” or whatever that nut is calling himself these days. MY PICK—Barnett via TKO2.

Chad Mendes vs. Clay Guida
I don’t know how Guida went from winning every OTN bonus known to man; to becoming a guy despised for his far-too-safe gameplanning. Let me say this…he won’t beat Mendes by playing it safe. Money is on a roll. 3 straight 1st round KOs—the longest didn’t even last 2 minutes. He’s looking more like a featherweight version of Sean Sherk or Matt Hughes every day. Guida is a tireless worker with an unlimited gas tank. He is not however a great athlete. Mendes has one loss on his entire career—and that came at the hands of a great athlete, Jose Aldo. I have a distinct feeling we’re seeing a version of Mendes that is at the very top of his game. With the pressure we’re about to see, Guida won’t have time to play it safe. Guida has never been knocked out…ever. There’s a first for everything. MY PICK—Mendes via TKO3.

Ben Rothwell vs. Brandon Vera
Okay look. This fight has zero relevance. Is that mean? Hell, most people think Vera got cut from the UFC years ago—he has exactly 1 win in his last five. Rothwell has been around so long, he actually trained a teenage Randy Couture. That’s not true—as insane as it seems, Big Ben is only 31. Still, he’s been around the block a time or two. He can hit pretty hard though. And that’s why watching two irrelevant HWs is better than watching two irrelevant flyweights. If you like sloppy knockouts, you might be in luck. Anything past the 1st 3 minutes and Rothwell will have to have his diaper changed. NO, he’s not that old! Still.  MY PICK—Rothwell via DEC

Erik Koch vs. Dustin Poirier
Here’s a pretty interesting fight. Koch seemed on the verge of fighting Aldo a couple times, but injuries prevented it. Likewise, Poirier has ventured into the deep end f the pool a couple times, only to come up short to Korean Zombie and an on-fire Cub Swanson. Someone is going to drop his second straight fight; the other returns to the varsity squad of the featherweight division. While I think Poirier is a star on the rise, Koch has the hometown crowd in his favor and a loss to Ricardo Lamas to avenge. I think he’ll bounce back like a pro. I’m seeing a submission or a controlling decision. MY PICK—Koch via DEC

  1. Eric Self says:

    my prediction…. Pettis wins with an armbar in the first round.

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